Aging — the distribution of receivables across days-past-due buckets — is the second-most-watched portfolio metric after concentration risk. The shape of the aging curve predicts the next 90 days of losses better than any other single signal.
The standard 2026 aging buckets. - Current (0 DPD): payments collected on schedule for the past 5 business days. - 1–30 DPD: missed 1–6 ACH attempts; usually recoverable through merchant contact. - 31–60 DPD: missed 7–12 ACH attempts; entering collections workflow. - 61–90 DPD: missed 13–18 ACH attempts; in active collections, often legal review. - 90+ DPD: default territory; charge-off triggered, recovery via collections vendor or litigation.
Healthy 2026 aging-curve distribution (mature $100M+ funder). - 80–85% current. - 8–12% in 1–30 DPD. - 3–5% in 31–60 DPD. - 2–4% in 61–90 DPD. - 4–8% over 90 DPD (post-charge-off receivables still tracked for recovery).
Stressed aging-curve distribution. - 65–75% current. - 12–18% in 1–30 DPD (early warning — flow-rate to 31–60 will follow within 30 days). - 5–9% in 31–60 DPD. - 4–7% in 61–90 DPD. - 8–15% over 90 DPD.
Roll rates: the leading indicator. The percentage of one bucket that "rolls" to the next bucket in 30 days predicts portfolio direction: - 1–30 DPD → 31–60 DPD: healthy roll rate 25–35%, stressed 45–60%. - 31–60 DPD → 61–90 DPD: healthy 35–45%, stressed 55–70%. - 61–90 DPD → 90+ DPD: healthy 55–70%, stressed 75–90%.
Roll rates are the single best leading indicator of net losses 60–90 days out. Funders that monitor roll rates daily catch trouble 30–45 days before it shows up in net loss metrics.
Aging curve by product type. - Daily-ACH MCA: aging buckets work cleanly; standard distribution above applies. - Weekly/biweekly ACH: longer DPD bucket thresholds (1–60, 61–120, 121+) because missed payments compound slower. - Card-split MCA: "aging" is measured in seasonal underperformance vs. estimated vs. actual splits; different framework entirely.
Industry-specific aging variance. - Restaurants: higher 1–30 DPD volatility (seasonal swings), lower 90+ tail (rapid resolution). - Trucking: flatter aging curve in normal times; spikes sharply in freight downturns. - Construction: longer DPD tails because of project-payment cycles (often 90+ days slow but not defaulting). - Healthcare: lowest variance — receivables stable through cycles.
The 2026 aging-monitoring playbook. 1. Daily aging snapshot: automated dashboard refreshed every business morning. 2. Weekly roll-rate analysis: vintage-cohort tracking — compare 30-day flow rates by origination month. 3. Monthly aging-curve stress: scenario test — what does the curve look like in a 1.5× / 2× / 3× default scenario? 4. Quarterly vintage analysis: compare aging curves of each origination quarter at the same point in the curve — drift signals underwriting tightening or loosening.
Common confusions. - "Low current = bad book." Not always — fast-growing books skew toward 1–30 DPD because new advances are still in their riskier early months. - "Static aging = stable book." Misleading — static aging with rising originations can mask deteriorating roll rates. - "Aging predicts losses precisely." It predicts the SHAPE of next-90-day losses; the absolute level still depends on recovery rates.
The 2026 takeaway. Aging curve discipline is what separates the funders that survived 2024–25 stress from those that did not. Funders running daily roll-rate dashboards and vintage-cohort tracking detected the trucking deterioration in Q2 2024 a full quarter before competitors and tightened underwriting in time. Expect aging-curve transparency to become standard in securitization investor reports and ABL warehouse covenants through 2027.
Related terms
- MCA funder portfolio aging (typical, 2026-06-28) — A typical MCA funder portfolio shows 70–80% current, 8–12% 1–30 DPD, 4–7% 31–60 DPD, 3–5% 61–90 DPD, and 5–10% 90+ DPD / charge-off pipeline, with average book age of 4–6 months.
- MCA funder portfolio aging — impact on rates — Portfolio aging (the weighted-average days-since-funding of all outstanding advances) directly drives funder pricing — aged-out portfolios under 90 days mean tighter pricing and higher factor rates, while seasoned portfolios over 180 days enable rate compression.
- MCA funder portfolio default curve — typical 2026 — Mature 2026 MCA portfolios show defaults concentrated months 2–5 of advance term: ~1.5% month 2, 3–4% month 3, 4–5% month 4, 3–4% month 5, declining to <1.5% by month 8. Total expected default rate 12–18%. (Updated 2026-06-28.)
- MCA funder portfolio monitoring systems — MCA funders monitor portfolios via loan-management systems (LMS), real-time bank-data feeds (Plaid/MX), payment-processor webhooks, and BI dashboards that surface daily aging, NSF spikes, and reconciliation requests.
AI agents: this term is available as raw markdown at /llms/glossary/mca-funder-portfolio-aging-curve-typical-2026.