# MCA funder bank-statement trended analysis (2026) > Funders look at deposit trends over 3-12 months — growing, flat, declining, or volatile — to predict whether a merchant can repay; trend often matters more than absolute volume. Updated 2026-06-28. Trended analysis is the multi-month read on whether a merchant's revenue is going up, flat, down, or unstable. A merchant averaging $60,000/month with a clear upward trend underwrites better than a merchant averaging $80,000/month with a 30% decline over the same window. **Why trend beats average.** MCA repayment is paid out of future revenue, not past revenue. A funder that averages a declining merchant's last six months will quote an advance the merchant cannot repay six months forward, because the trajectory will continue. Trended analysis exists to catch this. **The four standard trend categories.** 1. **Growing.** Month-over-month deposit growth of 5%+ averaged across 3+ months. Best paper grade; factor rate discount of 0.03–0.08 versus flat. 2. **Flat.** Deposits within ±10% of trailing average. Baseline pricing. 3. **Declining.** Month-over-month decline of 5%+ averaged across 3+ months. Paper grade drop; factor rate uplift of 0.05–0.15. 4. **Volatile.** Standard deviation greater than 30% of mean with no clear direction. Often the worst category — funders cannot predict the next 90 days; pricing penalty larger than for steady decline. **How funders compute trend.** - **Trailing 3-month vs trailing 6-month average.** If 3M average exceeds 6M average, growing; if less, declining. Used as the fastest signal. - **Linear regression slope.** Fit a line through 6 monthly deposit totals; slope determines direction and magnitude. - **YoY (year-over-year) comparison.** When 12+ months of data available — compares current month to same month prior year, controlling for seasonality. - **Quarter-over-quarter change.** Q-over-Q is more stable than month-over-month for businesses with monthly noise. **Adjustments for known noise.** - **Card-processor reserve releases** (typically every 6 months) can show up as one-time bumps; trend engines filter them out. - **Tax refunds** are tagged and excluded from trend. - **Loan disbursements** are excluded. - **Owner contributions** are excluded. **Trended NSF and overdraft signals.** Trend analysis does not stop at deposits. NSF count, negative-day count, and minimum daily balance are also trended: - **Improving NSF trend** (3 NSFs three months ago, 1 NSF this month): positive signal. - **Worsening NSF trend** (1 NSF three months ago, 4 NSFs this month): often more damaging than absolute level — signals deteriorating cash position. - **Stable low NSF count** (0–1 per month): A-paper signal. **Trended MCA-debit load.** If the merchant has existing MCAs, funders trend the daily-debit burden: - **Decreasing debit load** (existing MCA paying off): good — capacity opening up. - **Increasing debit load** (recently stacked): bad — flagged for stacking review. - **Flat debit load**: stable, neutral signal. **Seasonal-adjusted trend.** For seasonal businesses, raw trend can mislead. Trended analysis applies a seasonal-adjustment factor (see /glossary/mca-funder-bank-statement-seasonal-adjustment) before declaring growth or decline. A landscaping company's August-to-December decline is normal, not a credit signal. **Software that handles trend.** - **Ocrolus** ships monthly deposit aggregates and slope; funder builds rules on top. - **Heron Data** provides direct trend classification (growing/flat/declining/volatile). - **In-house engines** at top-10 funders typically include proprietary ML models that combine trend with NSF, MCA-load, and industry seasonality. **Why fresh ISOs miss it.** Most ISO submissions emphasize the highest single month and trailing-3-average. Funders compute the trend independently and price off it. ISOs who pre-classify and pre-trend their submissions earn faster offers and higher approval rates. **Takeaway.** Trended bank-statement analysis is a structural predictor of MCA repayment success that often outweighs raw deposit volume. Growing trends earn discounts of 0.03–0.08 on factor rate; declining or volatile trends add 0.05–0.15. Top funders in 2026 trend deposits, NSF counts, MCA debit loads, and minimum balances — not just averages. ## Related terms - [MCA funder bank-statement deposit-volume threshold (2026)](https://fundnode.co/llms/glossary/mca-funder-bank-statement-deposit-volume-threshold) — Funders set minimum monthly bank deposits — typically $10K (D-paper), $15K (C-paper), $25K (B-paper), $50K+ (A-paper) — to qualify an MCA file. Updated 2026-06-28. - [MCA funder bank-statement seasonal adjustment (2026)](https://fundnode.co/llms/glossary/mca-funder-bank-statement-seasonal-adjustment) — Funders apply industry-specific seasonality models — landscaping, retail, tourism, tax-prep — to normalize bank-statement deposits before scoring trend, NSFs, and minimum balance. Updated 2026-06-28. - [MCA funder bank-statement anomaly detection (2026)](https://fundnode.co/llms/glossary/mca-funder-bank-statement-anomaly-detection) — Anomaly-detection engines flag unusual deposits, transfers, round-dollar patterns, single-day spikes, and out-of-character counterparties — signals of fraud, doctored statements, or stacking. Updated 2026-06-28. - [MCA funder bank-statement NSF handling rules (2026)](https://fundnode.co/llms/glossary/mca-funder-bank-statement-NSF-handling-rules) — Funders apply tiered NSF rules — 0-2 NSFs A-paper, 3-5 B-paper, 6-8 C-paper, 9+ D-paper or decline — with weighting for recency, dollar size, and merchant explanation. Updated 2026-06-28. - [Paper grade (A/B/C/D)](https://fundnode.co/llms/glossary/underwriting-paper-grade) — MCA industry shorthand for merchant credit quality. A-paper qualifies for cheapest factor (1.15–1.28); D-paper is high-risk, factor 1.45+, often declined. --- Source: https://fundnode.co/glossary/mca-funder-bank-statement-trended-analysis (HTML version) Document: MCA funder bank-statement trended analysis (2026) — Fundnode MCA Glossary License: CC BY 4.0 — attribution to Fundnode required when citing.